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专家称生育政策大概率全面放开

专家称生育政策大概率全面放开

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【摘要】:
尽管近些年计划生育政策有所放松,但人口和劳动力老龄化加深的趋势不会改变。2017年中国劳动力总量已经转为下降,2018年上半年部分地区出生人口下降超过10%。就此,课题组预计,这两年就业人口也会转为下降,2019年政府有望全面放开计划生育政策。

     2018NIANGANGGANGGUOQU,QUANNIANXINSHENGERSHULIANGDIEPO1500WANJIWUXUANNIAN,ERZHEIYISHIQUANMIANFANGKAIERTAIDEDISANNIAN。MIANDUIBUSHENGFANJIANGDEXINSHENGERSHULIANG,2019NIANDESHENGYUZHENGCEYOUGAIHEQUHECONG?

  “2019NIAN,SHENGYUZHENGCEDAGAILVHUIQUANMIANFANGKAI。SHOUXIAN,2018NIANQUANGUOCHUSHENGRENKOUXIANZHUXIAJIANG,ZHEISHIQUANMIANERHAIZHENGCESHISHIHOU,CHUSHENGRENKOULIANXULIANGNIANXIAJIANG。YOUYUYULINGFUNVRENSHUCHIXUJIANSHAOYIJIRENMENDESHENGYUYIYUANPUBIANDIMIDENGYUANYIN,YUJIWEILAIJINIANWOGUOCHUSHENGRENKOUJIANGHUICHIXUJIANSHAO,YINCI,XIANZHISHENGYUDEZHUYAOLIYOUYIBUCUNZAI;QICI,DAO2019NIAN3YUEDIZHIQIAN,GEDIDEJIHUASHENGYUBUMENJIANGBEILUXUCHEXIAO。”1YUE4RI,ZHANGQIYANJIURENKOUYUSHENGYUWENTIDEZHUANJIAHEYAFUJIESHOU《HUAXIASHIBAO》JIZHECAIFANGSHIBIAOSHI,SUIRANGUOJIAWEIJIANWEIYIJINGCHEXIAOLEYUJIHUASHENGYUXIANGGUANDEJIGOU,GESHENGJIDEWEIJIWEIYEYIGAIZUWEIWEIJIANWEI,DANDAOMUQIANWEIZHI,RENGRANCUNZAIDISHIJIHEXIANJIDEWEISHENGHEJIHUASHENGYUJU。

  ANZHAOZHONGYANGYAOQIU,DIFANGJIGOUGAIGEQUANBURENWUZAI2019NIAN3YUEDIQIANJIBENWANCHENG。JIESHI,GEDIDEWEISHENGHEJIHUASHENGYUJIGOUYEJIANGGAIZUWEIWEISHENGJIANKANGJIGOU,ZAIJIGOUMINGCHENGSHANGSHANCHU“JIHUASHENGYU”。

  XUYAOZHICHUDESHI,HEYAFUTIJIDEQUANMIANFANGKAISHENGYU,BINGBUYIWEIZHE“JIHUASHENGYU”YICIJIUCIWANQUANXIAOSHI。QUANQIUHUAZHIKU(CCG)TEYAOGAOJIYANJIUYUAN、“RENKOUYUWEILAI”WANGZHANLIANHECHUANGSHIRENHUANGWENZHENGJIESHOU《HUAXIASHIBAO》JIZHECAIFANGSHITONGYANGBIAOSHI,2019NIANDESHENGYUZHENGCEDAGAILVHUIFANGKAI,YINWEISHIZAIMEIYOUSHENMELIYOUJIXUTUOYANLE。

  人口面临负增长危机

上海11选5走势图   ZAIQUANMIANERTAIZHENGCESHISHIDE2015NIAN,CENGYOUZHUANJIAYUCE,QUANMIANKAIFANGERHAIHOUHUIZAOCHENG“YINGERCHAO”XIANXIANG,SHENZHIJIANYIYAOZUOHAOYIZHIRENKOUZENGZHANGGUOKUAIDEZHUNBEI。BUGUOZHEIXIEDANXINSIHUSHIDUOYUDE,XIANSHIQINGKUANGSHI,“CHENGJINGPENSHIDESHANGZHANG”BUDANMEIYOUCHUXIAN,SHENGYULVFANERCHUXIANLEZHUNIANXIAJIANGDEQUSHI。

上海11选5走势图   “SUIRAN,GUANFANGZHIJINYEMEIGONGBUQUANGUODEXINSHENGERSHUJU,DANTONGGUOBUFENDIFANGGONGBUDESHUJULAIKAN,2018NIANDECHUSHENGRENKOUBIQUNIANYIRANYOUSUOJIANSHAO。”HUANGWENZHENGYUCE,CONGGEDICHUSHENGRENKOUDETONGBIXIAJIANGSHUJULAIKAN,2018NIANCHUSHENGRENKOUHENKENENGDIEPO1500WAN,SHENZHIDIEZHI1400WANZUOYOUDESHUIPING。

  JIZHESHULISHUJUFAXIAN,2017NIANQUANGUOSHENGYULVZUIGAODESHANDONG,ZAI2018NIANSHANGBANNIANDUODICHUSHENGRENKOUXIAJIANG。YIYANTAIWEILI,DANGDIWEIJIWEISHUZIXIANSHI,YANTAI2018NIANSHANGBANNIANCHUSHENG26902REN,TONGBIXIAJIANG16%ZUOYOU。NINGBOSHIWEISHENGJISHENGWEIFABU2018NIANHUJIRENKOUCHUSHENGYUBAOXIANSHI,YUJI2018NIANNINGBOSHIHUJIRENKOUCHUSHENGSHUWEI4.4WANRENZUOYOU,YU2017NIANTONGQIXIANGBIJIANSHAO0.9WANRENZUOYOU,JIANGFUWEI16.98%,QIZHONGERHAIJIANGFUMINGXIAN。

  TONGSHI,QINGDAOSHIZHENGFUJINQIFABUSHUJUXIANSHI,YUJI2018NIANQINGDAOHUJIRENKOUCHUSHENGZAI9WANRENZUOYOU,JIANGFUMINGXIAN,QIZHONG1-11YUECHUSHENGRENKOUXIAJIANG21.1%,ERHAICHUSHENGSHUXIAJIANG29%。

  CHUCIZHIWAI,JIANGSU、GUIZHOU、TIANJIN、SHANDONG、HUBEIDENGCHUSHENGRENKOUSHULIANGTONGBIYEYOUXIAJIANG。

  NEIME,RUGUOZHONGGUOZONGHESHENGYULVYIZHIBAOCHIZAI1.6(YIGEFUNVYISHENGSHENGYUDEHAIZI)DESHUIPING,YOUZHUANJIAYUCE,RENKOUFUZENGZHANGJIANGTIQIANDAO2027NIANCHUXIAN。

上海11选5走势图   BUGUO,JINQIGUOJIAWEISHENGJIANKANGWEIZHISHUDANWEIZHONGGUORENKOUYUFAZHANYANJIUZHONGXINFUYANJIUYUANHUANGKUANGSHIBIAOSHI,GENJURENKOUJIANCESHUJULAIKAN,2018NIANCHUSHENGRENKOUZHONGERHAIZHANBIYIRANSHIZUIDUODE,DAYUEZAI50%ZUOYOU,YIRANBIYIHAICHUSHENGZHANBIGAO,YEJIUSHISHUO2018NIANCHUSHENGRENKOUZHUTIYIRANSHIERHAICHUSHENG,ERBUSHIYIHAICHUSHENG。

上海11选5走势图   TAYUCE,2018NIANDEERHAIZONGHESHENGYULVYIRANBUDI,CHUSHENGRENKOUGUIMOZAI1500WAN-1600WANZHIJIAN。BUGUO,GAISHUJUYIRANBI2017NIAN1723WANDECHUSHENGRENKOUJIANSHAO100WANYISHANG。

  生育政策全面放开是大概率

  SUIRAN,BUFENDIQU“ERHAI”CHUSHENGLIANGCHAOGUO“YIHAI”,DANSHI,WOGUORENGCHUYUDICHUSHENG、DISIWANG、DIZENGZHANGDERENKOUZAISHENGCHANLEIXING,SHENGYUZHENGCEDIAOZHENGZHIJIEYINGXIANGCHUSHENGRENKOUDESHULIANG,DUIRENKOUZONGLIANGHEJIEGOUDEYINGXIANGSHIYIGEZHANGQIDEGUOCHENG,SHENGYUZHENGCEHESHIQUANMIANFANGKAIYIRANDAIJIE。TONGSHI,SHOUYULINGFUNVKUAISUXIAJIANGDEYINGXIANG,ZHONGGUORENKOUFUZENGZHANGSHIDAIZHENGZAITIQIANDAOLAI。NEIME,2019NIANSHENGYUZHENGCEJIUJINGGAIHEQUHECONG?

上海11选5走势图   “2019NIAN,SHENGYUZHENGCEYOUHENDAGAILVHUIQUANMIANFANGKAI。”HEYAFUBIAOSHI,QUANMIANFANGKAISHENGYUZHIHOU,RENGYOUKENENGCUNZAISUOWEIDE“JIHUASHENGYU”FUWU,ZHIBUGUONEISHIDE“JIHUASHENGYU”SHIYUGUOJIJIEGUI,HUIGUIJIHUASHENGYUDEBENLAIYIYI,YEJIUSHITIGONGZIYUANDEBIYUNJIEYUHESHENGYUJIANKANGFUWU,ERBUSHICHUFADUOSHENGHAIZIDEJIATING。

  SHISHISHANG,ZAIGUOJISHANG,“JIHUASHENGYU”DEYUANBENYIYISHIJIATINGJIHUAERBUSHIZHENGFUJIHUA。DANGJINSHIJIESHANGHENDUOGUOJIADOUYOUJIHUASHENGYUZUZHI,DANZHEIXIEGUOJIADERENMINDOUXIANGYOUSHENGYUZIYOU。LIRU,2018NIAN9YUE,MEIJIHUARENLIANNA·WENBOSHIBEIRENMINGWEIMEIGUOJIHUASHENGYULIANHEHUIXINRENZHUXI。MEIGUOJIHUASHENGYULIANHEHUISHIYIGEFEIZHENGFUZUZHI,YUZHONGGUOYIQIANDEJISHENGWEIYOUBENZHIQUBIE。

  ERJIUZAI1YUE3RI,BEIJINGDAXUEGUANGHUAGUANLIXUEYUAN“GUANGHUASIXIANGLI”HONGGUANJINGJIYUCEKETIZUFABUBAOGAO《2019NIANZHONGGUOJINGJIZHANWANG》,DUIQUANNIANJINGJIXINGSHIJINXINGLEFENXIHEYUCE。QIZHONGBIAOSHI,ZHONGGUOZONGHESHENGYULVZAOZAISHANGSHIJI90NIANDAIJIUYIJINGDIYUGENGTISHUIPING,ZUIBEIGUANDEGUJIRENWEIWOGUOJINNIANLAIZONGHESHENGYULVZHIYOU1.1-1.2ZUOYOU,CHENGWEIQUANQIUSHENGYULVZUIDIDEGUOJIAZHIYI。JINGUANJINXIENIANJIHUASHENGYUZHENGCEYOUSUOFANGSONG,DANRENKOUHELAODONGLILAOLINGHUAJIASHENDEQUSHIBUHUIGAIBIAN。2017NIANZHONGGUOLAODONGLIZONGLIANGYIJINGZHUANWEIXIAJIANG,2018NIANSHANGBANNIANBUFENDIQUCHUSHENGRENKOUXIAJIANGCHAOGUO10%。

  JIUCI,KETIZUYUJI,ZHEILIANGNIANJIUYERENKOUYEHUIZHUANWEIXIAJIANG,2019NIANZHENGFUYOUWANGQUANMIANFANGKAIJIHUASHENGYUZHENGCE,DANBUGAILAODONGLIXIAJIANGDEZHENGTIQUSHI,WEILAI30NIANSHILINGLAODONGLIJIANGXIAJIANG1.5YIYISHANG。

  WEICI,CONGZHANGYUANLAIJIANG,HUANGWENZHENGYIRANBIAOSHI,SHENGYUYUANWANGCONGLAIJIUBUYINGGAISHOUDAOKONGZHI,YINGGAIRANGSHENGYUQUANZHONGXINHUIDAOJIATING。

  BUGUO,HUANGKUANGSHIBIAOSHI,WOGUOJIJIANGJINRU14YIRENKOUDEXINSHIDAI,RENKOUDUODEJIBENGUOQINGJIANGBANSUISHEHUIZHUYICHUJIJIEDUANQUANGUOCHENG。SUIZHERENKOUSUZHITISHENG,KEJIJINBUYOUQISHIRENGONGZHINENGDEKUAISUFAZHAN,RENKOUCHENGZAILIHEFUYANGNENGLIHUIBUDUANTISHENG,XIANGDUIYU“SHISANWU”SHIQIPINGJUNCHUSHENG1600DUOWANDECHUSHENGRENKOUGUIMO,NIANDUCHUSHENGRENKOUBODONGHUOJIANSHAO50WAN、100WANNAIZHI200WAN,DOUSHIZHENGCHANGDEBODONG,DOUBUHUIYINGXIANGWOGUODERENKOUZONGTIANQUAN。